In-class Activity: Two truths and a lie
The following activity demonstrates probability calibration.
[Team] Activity: Two truths and a lie 1
Within your group:
One person tells three personal statements one of which is a lie.
Others discuss and guess which statement is the lie and they jointly construct a numerical statement of their certainty in the guess on a 0–10 scale.
The storyteller reveals which was the lie.
Enter the certainty estimate and the outcome success or failure and submit in the Microsoft form.
Rotate through everyone in your group so that each person plays the storyteller role once.
Discussion
What do you think the range of centainty scores will look like?
Will there be a positive relation between \(x\) and binary \(y\): are guesses with higher certainty be more accurate, on average?
How strong will the relation be between \(x\) and \(y\): what will the curve look like?